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Leading Lipstick Indicator: Fannie and Freddie 9/11/08

September 11th, 2008 · No Comments

September 11th is a day our generations will never forget.  It shook us to our core.  It reminded us of our vulnerabilities.  And it reminded us that United We Stand.  My thanks goes out to the firefighters and the workers that worked tirelessly repairing the cities. And my support goes out to those who had a loved one pass that day or the innocent bystander that had to witness the events first hand. Please take a moment today to consider what positive steps you can take in remembrance of this tragic day.
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Ocean Preservation: As many of you know, I will be taking on the Santa Barbara Channel Friday at 12 midnight via a relay swim.  What many of you don’t know is it benefits an incredible cause.  Should you be moved to support ocean conservation and underprivileged youth getting the opportunity to experience the Channel Islands first hand, please call or email me.  The benefiting organization is the National Marine Sanctuary Foundation.  My intent is to raise $400 ($10 x 40 people).  In either case, please pray for the sharks to be full from an earlier dinner and less than curious to replay Jaws. 

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Compounding Your Knowledge Seminar Series: Calling all Real Estate Agents!
The summer months are nearing completion, with the elusive fall months awaiting.  Do you understand the Fannie and Freddie impact.  Are you armed with the knowledge and information that will encourage your borrowers to consider home ownership?  Do you understand the possible Tax Credit of $7500?  How about when the $729,750 goes away?  The economic status?  What are you doing now to build business and increase market share?  We’ll discuss this all Monday, September 22nd at my office - 21 E Victoria St #300.
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Buzzword of the week: Leading Lipstick Indicator“An indicator based on the theory that a consumer turns to less expensive indulgences, such as lipstick, when she (or he) feels less than confident about the future.  Therefore, lipstick sales tend to increase during times of economic uncertainty or a recession.

This term was coined by Leonard Lauder (chairman of Estee Lauder), who consistently found that during touch economic times, his lipstick sales went up.  Believe it or not, the indicator has been quite a reliable signal of consumer attitudes over the years.  For example, in the months following the September 11 terrorist attacks, lipstick sales doubled.” -Investopedia

Might Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac be trying on lipstick this week?

Quick poll:  ladies (and gentlemen where applicable), have you found yourself purchasing more lipstick lately?

Five points to ponder:

  1. Bank skepticism powers forward on Lehman and Washington Mutual news.  The dollar is gaining strength.  US Trade Balance came in at $6Bn higher than expected. Oil is down to $8 on the week due to weak demand.  Pending home sales were down 3.2% in July.  The Dow is down 300pts on the week.
  2. Fannie and Freddie are put into a conservatorship by the government Sunday.  Mortgage rates continued their downward slope this week.
  3. Apple released it’s newest iPod Nano.  Shake it and it will shuffle your song list.
  4. Hurricane Ike is nearing the Texas coast at a category 3 level.
  5. USC vs Ohio State Showdown this weekend.  Dodgers are now 2.5 games up.   Angels secure division title thanks to Mariners victory.  UW Huskies lose chance at tie on bogus call.

Positives:

  • Mortgage rates are down due to the Fannie and Freddie news!  The government gave the market confidence in liquidity, stability and affordability  for these companies.  Spreads decreased on these loans.  Affordability is, thus, UP!  Are you renting?  Does this create an opportunity for you?  Find out.
  • Lowering oil prices are going to aid in the world’s economic recovery.  And the dollars strength will add value back into our pockets.
  •  More toys to buy from Apple.
  •  Ohio State doesn’t even stand a chance.
  • The Seattle Mariners did something positive this season as a result of a four hit outing by ICHIRO.

Negatives:

  • Major players in the financial services market, Lehman and Washington Mutual, are important indicators for our overall confidence moving forward.  They are scrambling to liquidate and find financial support.  The international interest is waning and national banks have yet to see reason in taking the risk.  Lehman wrote down another $4Bn. WaMu projects loan losses equaling $19Bn over the next two and half years.
  • Why oil prices are plummeting is a huge negative.  The world economy is pulling back on consumption.  The Europeans are struggling, as are other major economic power houses.  This fact coupled with the strong US Dollar will lead to lower US export numbers and even a widening US trade deficit.

Services: Rate Watch Reminder

This week there was a small window of time that I was able to capitalize on for some of my clients.  5.625% is a fantastic 30yr fixed rate.  If you aren’t part of this rate watch program and would like to be, please give me a call.  We’ll then get you prepared to take advantage of my information and knowledge.

Local:

West Beach Music Festival 

Where: West Beach
When: Friday (3pm), Saturday (12pm), Sunday (11am)
Cost: Fri-$45, Sat-$55, Sun-$35
Why:  Ziggy Marley, Jason Mraz, Natasha Bedingfield, George Clinton
www.WestBeachFestival.com

Live and Be Well,

Jeff Bochsler

Tags: Finances · Living Well · Market Street Report

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