Daily Intent

Whether you agree with the election, believe wholeheartedly in Barack, and even trust him or not, this is a powerful American decision.  Yes, the fact of a black man being elected as the president of the United States is historical.  Just as historical in my mind is the way the world quickly responded to our decision.  During a time of economic strife and world hatred toward the bulling and listening inept United States, people around the globe were elated.   Commentary showed renewed hope in the world leader and its direction.  It gave millions, if not billions, hope of a strong, prosperous future.

Why does this matter?  It fully matters moving forward both militarily and economically.  Like it or not, “the world is flat”.  We are in this together.  Foreign policy has never been more important.  We need Pakistan behind us to aid in suppressing fundamentalist terrorists.  We need Europe behind us in troop numbers and foreign policy decisions.  We need Europe and China and many other countries on the same page with the current financial crisis.

It’s apparent the world, despite McCain’s worldly experience, truly backed Obama.

We just reconfirmed our spot as the “Land of Opportunity”.

This is a good start.  Now we need to encourage him to get the right men and women around him to make strong, smart market supporting decisions.
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Market Street Round Table - Monday, November 10th.  6pm.
There was resounding appreciation for the first ever Market Street Round Table.  Dare we do another?  I invite all agents and financial planners interested in discussing the national economy, present headlines and how it pertains to the beautiful Santa Barbara real estate community.  Bring articles, questions, statistics worth discussing.
Where: 21 E Victoria St #300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101
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Buzzword: Presidential Election Cycle (Theory)

“A theory developed by Yale Hirsch that states that U.S. stock markets are weakest in the year following the election of a new U.S. president. According to this theory, after the first year, the market improves until the cycle begins again with the next presidential election.
 
 While the theory played out relatively reliably in the early to mid 1900s, data from the later twentieth century has disproved it.

In 1937, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first year, the market was down by 27.3%. The Truman and Eisenhower eras also started off with a down year in the stock market. The start of more recent presidencies, however, did not show the same pattern. In George H.W. Bush’s first year, the market was up 25.2%, and the start of both of Bill Clinton’s terms showed strong market performance - up by 19.9% and 35.9%.” -Investopedia

Not to worry: Democrats have proven their strength in a Bear market.  On average, bull markets have been the result.

  Six Points to Ponder:

   1. Barack Obama will be your president for the next 4 years.
   2. Huge stock advancements on the week ending horrendous month on a high note.  The Dow is down 200pts on the week.  S&P 500 down 30pts.  Nasdaq down 70pts.  Gas prices are down.
   3. The ECB and Bank of England both lowered their rates.
   4. Department stores reported weak October sales going into the holiday season.  Macy’s, JC Penney’s, and Sack’s all were down.  WalMart continue their benefits of a weak economy.
   5. Same-Sex Marriage rights were reversed in California leaving Gay couples licking their wounds.
   6. The Lakers are intimidating.  The Oklahoma City Thunder got their first win.  Seahawks?  Lose.  Raiders?  Lose. Manny Ramirez was offered deals of either $50M to $75M over two to three years to remain a Dodger.

Positives:

    * We have a new leader set to take on the White House, economic turmoil, and wars.  Good bye President Bush- we look forward to reading your book.
    * Europe is taking steps, though slowly, to reposition their economic policy to stimulate their economies.  This has strengthened the dollar.  A cheap Euro!  Time to start considering a trip to Europe.
    * Despite the ambiguities of the market, next week The Market Street Report (this email) will focus in on local financial advisers recommendations and thoughts on the market state.  Make sure you read it.

Negatives:

    * Even the blue state of California is not fully prepared to give Gay couples recognition of marriage.
    * Our economy has yet to bottom out and regain confidence.  All markets were down yesterday and are starting off down today.

Services: Community Program

I want to support you.  I take great pride in supporting local businesses, a dream and a great concept.  Please don’t hesitate to approach me about your new ideas or new shop openings.

That said, Embe - women’s fashion reatailer- has it’s Grand Opening this evening from 6pm- 8pm.   Store owner Mary Beth Larkin has been selling her  line out of a studio in Carpinteria and now brings her beautiful line to Paseo Nuevo!  Located where Mel’s use to be.  Come by tonight, check out the line and enjoy a beverage.

Local:

Reckless at UCSB by Craig Lucas
Where: Performing Arts Theatre
When: Nov 7-9pm at 8pm
Cost: $17 General Admission
Why:  Darkly comic drama.  Support local theatre and talent.

Live and Be Well,

Jeff Bochsler